RETIREMENT SIMULATOR

How much will you retire with?

The market doesn't go up in a straight line, and this calculator doesn't pretend it does: instead of applying a fixed average every year, we generate 1,000 possible futures with real ups and downs, and show you the full range of outcomes.

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Benchmark: S&P 500 · 10.0% expected return

Advanced settings

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What you retire with
$423,681
in today's dollars
What does this mean?

With $100 today you fill a grocery cart. In 25 years, that same cart might cost double — not because there's more food, but because prices rise (inflation). "Today's dollars" shows what that money could BUY at today's prices. "Future dollars" shows the number you'd actually see in your account that year — bigger, but buying the same amount. Both views describe the same result. Pick "today's dollars" to plan your real purchasing power, or "future dollars" to compare against calculators that don't adjust for inflation.

We simulate 1,000 possible market futures — with ups and downs, not a fixed average. In half of those futures you end with at least this amount.

$234k
Bad scenario (p10)
$891k
Good scenario (p90)
$1,412
Monthly income (4% rule)
Where does that amount come from?
Your contributions: $160,000 (38%)Returns: $263,681 (62%)

Chance of ending below what you put in: 3%

How your investment evolves

in today's dollars

$0$250k$500k$750k$1.0M0510152025years
Median (p50)p10–p90Fixed average (no volatility)

Frequently asked questions

Why not use a fixed average return like other calculators?

Because the market doesn't return the same every year: it's up 20% one year and down 15% the next. A fixed average hides that risk. We simulate 1,000 possible futures with real volatility and show you the full range: a bad scenario (p10), the median (p50) and a good one (p90).

What do the profiles mean?

Each profile uses the approximate historical return and volatility of a benchmark: Conservative (~5.5%, a 40/60 stock/bond portfolio), Market (~10%, S&P 500) and Aggressive (~13%, Nasdaq-100). With the Custom profile you choose your own return and volatility.

Are results adjusted for inflation?

Yes: everything is shown in today's dollars, assuming 3% annual inflation. If the simulator says $500,000, that amount buys what $500,000 buys today.

What is the 4% rule?

A classic planning reference: withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement (inflation-adjusted afterwards) has historically sustained 30-year retirements. We use it to translate your final amount into an approximate monthly income.

* Illustrative simulation using log-normal returns and constant volatility. Past benchmark returns don't guarantee future returns. Not investment advice.